It had been an obvious fact for long, but it's now official : Tony Blair will step down within a year. On September 7, the Prime Minister took the opportunity of the Labour conference to announce that it was his last one as leader of the party and head of government – despite his previous statements that he would not lead the party into a fourth general election but would serve a full third term. Finally, because of a short victory at the 2005 general election and everlasting rows over Iraq, amongst several other controversies, hopes of beating a record as longest-serving PM are fading away. There's an atmosphere of fin de règne : ten years seem to be quite enough.
Gordon Brown has been known as a natural successor to Mr Blair for a long time. The story is a piece of history : in 1994, when John Smith dies suddenly, these two young ambitious backbenchers decide to take the party over and share their future responsibilities. As explained by a book later staged on TV – The Deal by Stephen Frears –, what is known as the Granita agreement ties Blair and Brown as heads of the future New Labour ; once they sack the Tories, the one will be the effective leader, the other will control the British economic policy and may become PM later. So now it's up to Brown to prove he can do the job.
Yet, the two men are not the best friends on Earth. Their agreement is all but rooted in their hearts. Remember Mrs Blair screaming at the last party conference while Brown was declaiming his speech : 'Well, that's a lie!'… Cherie just couldn't believe the Chancellor when he paid tribute to her husband. These gentlemen have worked together for years and years but remain rivals – maybe more than ever. Mr Brown urges the Prime Minister to endorse him as his successor, which Blair has refused until now. On October 11, when asked by David Cameron if he 'backed the Chancellor as his successor', Blair did not answer…
Brown has been expecting his ticket to Number Ten for a while, and there has been a division between Blairites and Brownites within the party too. At the conference, some impatient Brownite MPs publicly asked Tony Blair to end his term as soon as possible ; they do fear to be defeated at the next election because of an exhausted premiership. This is what Blairites fear too, actually : will the party still look attractive to voters with such a dull leader? Mr Blair may be weak at the moment but his glamorous style has been a key to every Labour's success since 1997. Therefore some Labour MPs have been trying to find an 'Anybody but Gordon' solution to Blair's retirement.
There should be contestants to face Gordon Brown's bid to Number Ten, these MPs say. A contest is planned by the party, indeed. A number of men have been rumoured as possible challengers to Brown's application. Current Home Secretary John Reid was on the top of the list, but he keeps on claiming the only job he is planning to run for is Home Secretary ; he is obviously not burning to go to the battle, which is a disappointment for most Blairites as Mr Reid is a credible man in the public opinion – actually, the only one except Brown standing over 10 percent in the Labour leadership election polls.
Other plausible contestants have declined to fight that war, or are unsure whether they should do it or not. Alan Johnson, Secretary for Education, 'only' expects to stand for Deputy Prime minister when John Prescott steps down ; Johnson recently told the BBC that he backs Brown as leader. Jack Straw is sometimes credited but has never talked of any application of his own. Left-wingers John McDonnell and Michael Meacher MPs seem determined to contest, but they may not be a threat for the Chancellor. Former Home Secretary Charles Clarke, who obviously hates Mr Brown and still refuses to rule himself out of the running, suggests that former Health Secretary Alan Milburn should apply. Blairites might also rely on John Hutton, who is Secretary for Work and one of Blair's closest supporters. But one of their strongest hopes, young David Miliband, 41, Environment Secretary, has just ruled himself out of a leadership bid ; yet in a recent article published by the Daily Mail, Cherie Blair allegedly stated that he is her husband's preferred successor instead of Gordon Brown. Blair himself once said Miliband is his Cabinet's Wayne Rooney…
But do all these men have the skills, the experience and the will to become Britain's next Prime Minister in six months or so? As points out Nick Robinson from the BBC on his blog, 'There is nobody who is a plausible contender to take on the Chancellor.' He wrote on November 9 that 'It is looking increasingly unlikely that anyone credible from the Cabinet will run against Gordon Brown for the leadership.' Influential members of the Cabinet, such as Peter Hain, are starting to allege that there will be a coronation instead of a contest. But analysts also know that several months are a long time in politics. Blair won't leave office later than September – some say it's more likely to happen in May or June – and that is enough for dramatic changes. 'If Gordon Brown looks like a loser when the time comes to choose Tony Blair's successor his party will look for a winner', adds Robinson.
Anyway, Mr Brown is on his way to Number Ten. He recently made a speech at the UN assembly in New York, met international leaders such as Mr Prodi or the King of Jordan in London. He has just launched a new bond scheme aiming at inoculating children in the poorest countries, with the help of Bill Gates. He and Tony Blair recently appointed Al Gore as their special adviser on environmental issues. Big news : these weeks, Mr Brown has also converted himself into a team player with his colleagues. Obviously, a lot of work is done to give him a strong image of a reliable and competent statesman. Brown is also trying to appeal to a Middle Britain that once fell in love with Mr Blair, and that likes blurry but modern-looking David Cameron. The Chancellor is now talking of a public action focusing on children and sports – far away from his traditional financial and economic topics… Popular reality TV shows illustrate his speech. The son of a Scottish Presbyterian minister is trying hard to change his boring image, which is not an easy task after a decade spent at a very exposed job.
It seems that there's a lot of pressure and glory over Gordon Brown at the same time. He's been waiting that moment for at least twelve years, if not more! Unless something unexpected happens, he will be the boss : no serious contestant wants to face him, and ironically, as points out Nick Robinson, 'there is now a very crowded field indeed for the position of deputy leader.' Unfortunately for Brown, if he fails to be authoritarian, what is more likely to happen is a continuing split within his party, preventing him from being a great Prime Minister. The two situations are not exactly the same, but such divisions lead the Tories to a disaster in the 1990s. And would Tony Blair be sincerely sorry if, after ten years of reforms and bright style of governance, his successor failed because of an inadequate styling? Eleven years of Thatcherism have gone to posterity… but what about 'Majorism' now?
Gordon Brown has been known as a natural successor to Mr Blair for a long time. The story is a piece of history : in 1994, when John Smith dies suddenly, these two young ambitious backbenchers decide to take the party over and share their future responsibilities. As explained by a book later staged on TV – The Deal by Stephen Frears –, what is known as the Granita agreement ties Blair and Brown as heads of the future New Labour ; once they sack the Tories, the one will be the effective leader, the other will control the British economic policy and may become PM later. So now it's up to Brown to prove he can do the job.
Yet, the two men are not the best friends on Earth. Their agreement is all but rooted in their hearts. Remember Mrs Blair screaming at the last party conference while Brown was declaiming his speech : 'Well, that's a lie!'… Cherie just couldn't believe the Chancellor when he paid tribute to her husband. These gentlemen have worked together for years and years but remain rivals – maybe more than ever. Mr Brown urges the Prime Minister to endorse him as his successor, which Blair has refused until now. On October 11, when asked by David Cameron if he 'backed the Chancellor as his successor', Blair did not answer…
Brown has been expecting his ticket to Number Ten for a while, and there has been a division between Blairites and Brownites within the party too. At the conference, some impatient Brownite MPs publicly asked Tony Blair to end his term as soon as possible ; they do fear to be defeated at the next election because of an exhausted premiership. This is what Blairites fear too, actually : will the party still look attractive to voters with such a dull leader? Mr Blair may be weak at the moment but his glamorous style has been a key to every Labour's success since 1997. Therefore some Labour MPs have been trying to find an 'Anybody but Gordon' solution to Blair's retirement.
There should be contestants to face Gordon Brown's bid to Number Ten, these MPs say. A contest is planned by the party, indeed. A number of men have been rumoured as possible challengers to Brown's application. Current Home Secretary John Reid was on the top of the list, but he keeps on claiming the only job he is planning to run for is Home Secretary ; he is obviously not burning to go to the battle, which is a disappointment for most Blairites as Mr Reid is a credible man in the public opinion – actually, the only one except Brown standing over 10 percent in the Labour leadership election polls.
Other plausible contestants have declined to fight that war, or are unsure whether they should do it or not. Alan Johnson, Secretary for Education, 'only' expects to stand for Deputy Prime minister when John Prescott steps down ; Johnson recently told the BBC that he backs Brown as leader. Jack Straw is sometimes credited but has never talked of any application of his own. Left-wingers John McDonnell and Michael Meacher MPs seem determined to contest, but they may not be a threat for the Chancellor. Former Home Secretary Charles Clarke, who obviously hates Mr Brown and still refuses to rule himself out of the running, suggests that former Health Secretary Alan Milburn should apply. Blairites might also rely on John Hutton, who is Secretary for Work and one of Blair's closest supporters. But one of their strongest hopes, young David Miliband, 41, Environment Secretary, has just ruled himself out of a leadership bid ; yet in a recent article published by the Daily Mail, Cherie Blair allegedly stated that he is her husband's preferred successor instead of Gordon Brown. Blair himself once said Miliband is his Cabinet's Wayne Rooney…
But do all these men have the skills, the experience and the will to become Britain's next Prime Minister in six months or so? As points out Nick Robinson from the BBC on his blog, 'There is nobody who is a plausible contender to take on the Chancellor.' He wrote on November 9 that 'It is looking increasingly unlikely that anyone credible from the Cabinet will run against Gordon Brown for the leadership.' Influential members of the Cabinet, such as Peter Hain, are starting to allege that there will be a coronation instead of a contest. But analysts also know that several months are a long time in politics. Blair won't leave office later than September – some say it's more likely to happen in May or June – and that is enough for dramatic changes. 'If Gordon Brown looks like a loser when the time comes to choose Tony Blair's successor his party will look for a winner', adds Robinson.
Anyway, Mr Brown is on his way to Number Ten. He recently made a speech at the UN assembly in New York, met international leaders such as Mr Prodi or the King of Jordan in London. He has just launched a new bond scheme aiming at inoculating children in the poorest countries, with the help of Bill Gates. He and Tony Blair recently appointed Al Gore as their special adviser on environmental issues. Big news : these weeks, Mr Brown has also converted himself into a team player with his colleagues. Obviously, a lot of work is done to give him a strong image of a reliable and competent statesman. Brown is also trying to appeal to a Middle Britain that once fell in love with Mr Blair, and that likes blurry but modern-looking David Cameron. The Chancellor is now talking of a public action focusing on children and sports – far away from his traditional financial and economic topics… Popular reality TV shows illustrate his speech. The son of a Scottish Presbyterian minister is trying hard to change his boring image, which is not an easy task after a decade spent at a very exposed job.
It seems that there's a lot of pressure and glory over Gordon Brown at the same time. He's been waiting that moment for at least twelve years, if not more! Unless something unexpected happens, he will be the boss : no serious contestant wants to face him, and ironically, as points out Nick Robinson, 'there is now a very crowded field indeed for the position of deputy leader.' Unfortunately for Brown, if he fails to be authoritarian, what is more likely to happen is a continuing split within his party, preventing him from being a great Prime Minister. The two situations are not exactly the same, but such divisions lead the Tories to a disaster in the 1990s. And would Tony Blair be sincerely sorry if, after ten years of reforms and bright style of governance, his successor failed because of an inadequate styling? Eleven years of Thatcherism have gone to posterity… but what about 'Majorism' now?
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